Impact of the diabetes epidemic is enormous
Last Updated Aug 2007
As I write my first article of 2007, the future does not look too bright for world
health, according to results presented at the World Diabetes Conference in South
Africa in December 2006. It was projected that worldwide incidence of type 2
diabetes will rise to 380 million by 2025. The current total of worldwide diabetes
stands at 246 million and was only 30 million 20 years ago. More than 80 percent
of the 2025 total will be in poor and middle-income countries that simply don't
have the wealth to pay for the massive costs that come with diabetes. For example,
in the United States each patient costs about $6,000 per year to treat. Nearly 50
percent of the worldwide treatment costs of diabetes are expended in the United
States even though it has only 8 percent of the world's population. Currently
there are about 20 million people with diabetes in the United States, but the 80
million diabetics in India and China dwarf this number. The World Health
Organization reports that diabetes and the associated heart disease and strokes
that come with it will be a major drag on world economic growth. It is estimated
that by 2025, China will lose $500 billion in national income, and Russia will lose
nearly $300 billion. These are costs that neither country is prepared to pay.
Even more striking is the fact that the annual death toll related to diabetes is
now estimated at 3.8 million. This is more than the worldwide death toll of HIV
and malaria combined. As Martin Silink, the incoming president of the
International Diabetes Federation, said, "This is an epidemic that seems to have
crept up on people. The enormity of the epidemic has suddenly become apparent."
The irony is that this epidemic can be rapidly reversed by diet, specifically the
Zone Diet. The most logical application of the Zone Diet in developing countries
would be to use newly invented Zone rice and pasta that have the appropriate
protein to carbohydrate ratio to reverse the hormonal cause (insulin resistance) of
diabetes in the most cost-effective way. Our first clinical trials of this radical
new dietary approach will start this year in the United States, and I hope the
technology will go worldwide by the end of the decade.